Kyoto University, Japan
Speech title "Collaborations with Japanese companies to decarbonise coal power in Asia via abatement and retirement: Two roads to nowhere?"
Abstract---Aligning global electricity generation with Paris Agreement targets requires an urgent phase-out of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs). While many Western countries have made headway in retiring aged CFPP assets, decarbonisation faces exceptional hurdles in rapidly expanding Asian economies dominated by young fleets. As new construction virtually ceases, the mitigation challenge has shifted to transitioning existing CFPPs via two competing pathways: (1) climate-optimal early retirement; or (2) asset-protecting technological abatement, such as carbon capture and ammonia co-firing. Although literature shows that foreign state and corporate actors profoundly steer regional decisions, a critical knowledge gap remains regarding which pathway dominant external incumbents are actively promoting. To resolve this, we examine cross-border interventions by Japan—historically the region's second-largest coal financier and technology provider after China. Utilizing a novel dataset compiled from corporate and government announcements, we evaluate the quantitative scale, qualitative features, institutional drivers, and implementation barriers characterising these efforts. Our analysis reveals that Japanese engagement heavily favours asset-protecting technological abatement, with scant evidence of concrete early retirement initiatives. Crucially, however, despite their high quantity, these abatement projects exhibit are of low operational quality, remaining confined to preliminary feasibility studies and pilot demonstrations that lack definitive implementation timelines. We conclude that current collaborations between local and Japanese actors fail to provide an effective strategy to align Asia’s coal fleet with global climate objectives.